GOLD Analysis
Afternoon: Gold trades below 3300$ on Tariff De-escalation Hints and Data-Driven Fed Outlook
Highlights:
- Bessent’s “very good” reciprocal tariff offers and China’s targeted exemptions underpin gold’s safe-haven bid around $3,330/oz.
- A data-heavy week—US Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, plus Euro-zone sentiment and CPI—will shape Fed expectations and gold flows.
- Key technical zones: support at $3,290 and 3265$ and resistance at $3315 & $3,360 favoring sell-on-rise strategy around 3275-80$
Overview:
Gold prices have stabilized below 3300$ per ounce level as market participants weigh mixed signals on U.S.–China trade negotiations and prepare for a barrage of crucial economic releases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Monday framed the current dynamic: several of America’s major trading partners “have made very good tariff proposals,” and China’s decision to exempt select U.S. goods from retaliatory duties reflects a tentative willingness to de-escalate. However, Bessent emphasized that reciprocation is essential, noting that “it is up to China” to take the next step toward meaningful relief. This calibrated optimism has supported gold’s safe-haven bid, even as outright assurances remain elusive.
Looking ahead, the U.S. economic calendar is exceptionally crowded. Wednesday’s preliminary estimate of first-quarter GDP will serve as the first broad gauge of growth momentum following the Fed’s March meeting. On the inflation front, March’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index—a key Fed metric—will update policymakers on underlying price pressures, while Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is likely to exert a strong influence on interest-rate expectations. Euro-zone releases, including Germany’s GfK consumer-climate survey and Spain’s flash CPI, will inform continental demand and inflation trajectories. Additional U.S. data—comprising goods-trade balances, the S&P/Case-Shiller house-price index, job-openings figures from JOLTS, and the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index—will further enrich the macroeconomic picture.
Technically, gold’s immediate support resides at $3,265, with resistance pegged at $3,315. In India’s MCX market, the metal is trading above ₹95,500, facing resistance near ₹96,500. Given the persistent tug-of-war between easing tariff rhetoric and the potential for renewed escalation, coupled with the Fed’s data-driven approach to policy, a disciplined “Sell-on-rise” strategy remains prudent. Traders may consider entering near $3,275-80 with targets near $3,255-25, while maintaining a protective stop below $3330 to manage Upside risk.
Trading Strategy
- Action: Selling around $3275-80, targeting $3255-45; place a stop-loss above $3330 to protect against a renewed breakout.