GOLD Analysis
Afternoon: Gold Trades Near $3,315 on Tariff Optimism and Data-Driven Fed Watch
Highlights:
- Treasury Secretary Bessent’s positive comments on reciprocal tariff reductions bolster gold’s safe-haven demand around $3,315/oz.
- Upcoming U.S. releases—Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls—alongside Euro-zone data will critically shape Fed outlook and bullion flows.
- Technical support at $3,290 and resistance at $3,360 frame a disciplined sell on rise strategy.
Overview:
Gold hovered around $3,315 per ounce as market participants parsed signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions and braced for a torrent of U.S. economic releases later this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that “very good” tariff proposals have emerged from key trading partners—and that China’s recent decision to exempt select U.S. goods from retaliatory duties demonstrated a willingness to de-escalate—provided foundational support for bullion. Yet Bessent reiterated that any rollback must be mutual, leaving the path to a comprehensive agreement uncertain.
Against this backdrop, traders are recalibrating their Fed-watch strategies. The upcoming first estimate of U.S. Q1 GDP will offer insight into growth momentum, while March’s PCE inflation figures remain the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures. April’s nonfarm payrolls report will cap the data trifecta, potentially influencing the central bank’s rate outlook. On the European front, German GfK consumer-climate data and Spanish flash CPI readings will round out the picture of global demand and inflation dynamics. Further U.S. indicators—goods‐trade balances, the S&P/Case-Shiller HPI, JOLTS job openings, and the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index—add layers of nuance for cross-asset positioning.
From a technical standpoint, gold finds immediate support at $3,290 and faces resistance near $3,360. In India’s MCX market, the metal is bracketed by ₹95,500 on the downside and ₹96,500 above. A disciplined “buy on dips” approach—entering near $3,318 with a stop loss under $3,304 and targeting $3,340—aligns with both the bullish structural trend and short-term volatility expectations. As policymakers and markets navigate policy signals on trade and interest rates, gold’s oscillations around the mid-$3,300 level will continue to reflect the tug-of-war between growth optimism and safe-haven demand.
Trading Strategy
- Action: Selling around $3315, targeting $3289- 3265; place a stop-loss above $3335 to protect against a renewed breakout.