FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental Forecast | 4 October 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Following yesterday’s surprise JOLTS job openings data, the ADP employment report will be the next closely watched economic data point for the US labour market this week. August’s figures of 177k printed lower than the estimate and September’s forecast points to a gain of 153k jobs. Another weaker-than-expected number could potentially function as a bearish catalyst for the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the services sector has been powering the overall US economy for most parts of 2023 but recent data shows the rate of expansion slowing considerably. September’s estimate for ISM Services PMI shows a figure of just 50.2, inching closer to contraction and a weaker-than-anticipated PMI reading could rein in the US dollar. A strong pullback in the US dollar could finally provide some lift for gold in the near-term during the US session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish



Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The API weekly stockpiles experienced a larger than anticipated drawdown with 4.2M barrels of crude taken from inventory versus the estimate of just 920k. Despite the surprise drawdown, crude prices remain under pressure as WTI oil failed to break above the $89.00 per barrel mark overnight. With data for EIA crude oil inventories to be released today, another surprise draw could potentially provide some lift for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish