FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental Forecast | 31 October 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Employment Cost Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Employment Cost Index – which measures the growth of total employee compensation – is set to remain unchanged at 1.0% for the third quarter of 2023. Wages and salaries, benefit costs and compensation costs for civilian workers all increased in the second quarter. Any slowdown in the pace of growth for this index allows the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates steady and potentially project a more neutral outlook on monetary policy, which could function as a bearish catalyst for the DXY and thus potentially boost gold prices higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish



Key news events today

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After tumbling yesterday, crude oil prices rose at the beginning of the Asian trading hours. WTI oil declined by nearly 2.7% to hit a low of $81.49 per barrel but prices have since rebounded to climb above the $82-mark. Although there was no immediate escalation in the ongoing Middle East conflict, markets remained wary of any new developments that could trigger a rise in crude prices, especially as Israel launched a large-scale ground offensive in Gaza.

Over to the US, API stockpiles have experienced stronger-than-expected drawdowns over the last couple of weeks and another outsized drawdown could function as a bullish catalyst for crude prices later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish