FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental Forecast | 25 August 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Member Harker Speaks (1:00 pm and 1:40 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (2:05 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Following yesterday’s CNBC interview, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will be engaging in two more interviews today – the first conducted by Bloomberg TV followed by Yahoo Finance Live after. Once again, his comments and remarks could have an impact on the demand for the US dollar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. Although his focus will be on the theme “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”, any comments or remarks by him on topics such as inflation and monetary policy are likely to have a profound impact on the demand for the greenback and thus drive the direction for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The XAUUSD, which represents the Gold spot price in US Dollars, currently indicates a bullish trend. Given this upward momentum, there’s a strong possibility of a bullish continuation towards the specified resistance levels.

The 1st support for XAUUSD lies at 1912.79. This level is significant due to its classification as an overlap support, coupled with its alignment with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement. Overlap supports often represent levels where the price has shown historical interactions, and in conjunction with a Fibonacci level, its significance is further enhanced.

The 2nd support is pegged at 1901.84. This level stands out not only as a multi-swing low support but also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, adding to its importance as a potential stabilization point in case of a pullback.

On the upside, the 1st resistance is set at 1931.07. This level acts as an overlap resistance and also shows a Fibonacci confluence, specifically with the 61.80% and 38.20% Fibonacci Retracements. Such confluences often act as robust barriers or pivot points in the market, suggesting a potential area of contention for the upward price movement.

Further ahead, the 2nd resistance is positioned at 1944.27, which also serves as an overlap resistance, indicating another potential challenge for the bullish momentum.


Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Despite larger than expected drawdowns in both API and EIA crude oil inventories, crude prices came under pressure from a surge in the value of the US dollar overnight. Crude prices have declined for the second week in a row but WTI oil prices have bounced off yesterday’s low at $77.60 to climb above the $79 per barrel region. Crude prices could climb higher as the final day of trading comes to a close but a second consecutive week of decline is all but certain for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) chart is currently displaying a bearish momentum. One significant factor contributing to this trend is the price positioning below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, often suggesting potential further downside. There is potential for price to make a continued downward movement towards the identified support levels.

The 1st support level at 78.10 is identified as a multiple swing-low support that coincides with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.80% retracement and the 127.20% extension levels, offering a stronger foundation as a potential support zone.

In addition, the 2nd support level at 76.90 is identified as an overlap support that also aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 161.80% extension and the 78.60% projection levels.

To the upside, the 1st resistance at 80.24 is identified as an overlap resistance characteristic that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 81.43 is also identified as an overlap resistance.