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Asia – Commodities Fundamental Forecast | 24 August 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

FOMC Member Harker Speaks (4:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Last week’s unemployment claims came in slightly lower than the forecast and the prior week’s reading which functioned as a bearish catalyst for gold. Another ‘softer’ reading is likely to add further downward pressure for this precious metal.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will be discussing the economic outlook of the US in an interview conducted by CNBC where he could share his views and those of his fellow committee members on the key topics of inflation, economic growth and of course monetary policy. His comments and remarks are likely to have a profound impact on the demand of the US dollar and thus drive the direction for gold.


The XAU/USD (Gold to US Dollar) chart is currently showing a bullish momentum, suggesting a tendency for upward movement.

In this context, there’s a potential scenario where the price could experience a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance at 1931.07.

The 1st support at 1901.87 is considered an overlap support, indicating its significance as a potential level where price might find stability or rebound. Similarly, the 2nd support at 1887.91 is identified as a multi-swing low support, further strengthening its potential role in providing a foundation for price movements.

Conversely, the 1st resistance at 1931.07 is categorized as an overlap resistance, which could act as a barrier to further upward movements. The 2nd resistance at 1944.27 is also recognized as an overlap resistance, adding to its potential importance in limiting upward price progress.


Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

EIA crude oil inventories experienced a stronger than expected drawdown – which signals higher demand in the US – as 6.1M barrels of crude were drawn versus the forecast of a 2.9M drop. This higher drawdown provided a short-term lift to crude prices as WTI bounced from a low $77.50 to a high of $79.30 per barrel before weaker macro fundamentals such as the recent deteriorating PMI activity in Europe took over once more and prices resumed the downtrend, falling under the $79.00-mark.


The WTI chart currently indicates a bearish momentum, suggesting a prevailing downward trend. There is potential for price to continue its downward movement towards the 1st support level at 76.90.

There is also an intermediate support level at 77.59 which is identified as a recent swing-low that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. The 1st support level at 76.90 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 161.80% extension and the 78.60% projection levels.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 78.83 is identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2nd resistance level at 80.24 is also identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.