FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental and Technical Forecast | 22 September 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Flash Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Although still above the key 50-level expansion threshold, the Composite PMI reading has been expanding at an increasingly slower rate over the last three months. A weaker expansion in the service sector combined with a renewed decline in manufacturing output led to the marginal decrease in total new business in August. The flash readings for September point to a slight improvement. The ongoing strength of the DXY is adding further downward pressure on gold price but this precious metal has managed to stay above the key $1,900/oz threshold thus far.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Technical

The USD/JPY chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum, and this bullish sentiment is attributed to the price trading above a major ascending trend line, suggesting the potential for further bullish movements.

In this context, there’s a potential scenario where the price could continue its bullish trajectory towards the 1st resistance level at 148.41. This resistance level is characterized as a swing high resistance, which may act as a barrier to any potential upward movements.

On the support side, the 1st support at 147.45 is identified as an overlap support and is marked at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level, indicating its potential significance as a support zone. The 2nd support at 146.91 is marked as an overlap support and is significant due to the confluence of the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension.

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After the sharp pullback in crude oil prices since Tuesday, this commodity is climbing higher once more as concerns surrounding a Russian ban on fuel exports could further tighten the global oil supply. WTI oil found relatively strong support around the $89 per barrel mark and is likely to close in the green today. Despite this, crude prices are all but certain to notch a first loss in four weeks.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Technical

The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) chart currently exhibits an overall bullish momentum, suggesting the potential for a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level should price break above the intermediate resistance which is identified as pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

The 1st resistance level at 92.09 is identified as a multi-swing-high resistance while the 2nd resistance level at 94.51 is marked as a resistance level that aligns with the 100.00% Fibonacci projection level.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 88.46 is identified as a pullback support that aligns with 61.80% Fibonacci projection level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 87.49 is also identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.60% projection and the -27% expansion levels.