FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental and Technical Forecast | 19 September 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Building Permits (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After decreasing throughout 2022, building permits in the US stabilized in the first half of this year. However, permits have printed lower than the forecasts over the last two months which could signal a slowdown in the residential construction sector and possibly have a negative impact on the DXY and thus boost gold prices in the short-term.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The XAU/USD chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum, and while the bullish sentiment persists, there’s a short-term scenario where the price may experience a temporary decline towards the 1st support level at 1915.89 before subsequently rebounding and ascending towards the 1st resistance at 1934.40. The 1st support is of notable significance, marked as an overlap support, emphasizing its historical relevance as a potential strong support zone.  Similarly, the 2nd support at 1903.38 is identified as an overlap support, further underlining its role as a key support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1934.40 plays a pivotal role, categorized as an overlap resistance, and it carries the potential to act as a resistance barrier in the short term. Beyond the 1st resistance, the 2nd resistance at 1945.96 is also identified as an overlap resistance, further emphasizing its relevance. As the chart’s overall bullish momentum continues.


Key news events today

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

API stockpiles increased last week for the first time in five weeks but that did not stop crude oil from climbing higher. WTI oil briefly rose above the $91 per barrel level yesterday and is likely to remain elevated as US oil output from top shale-producing regions is on track to fall to 9.4M barrels per day (bpd) in October, the lowest level since May 2023 as stated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday – it has now fallen for three months in a row.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The chart for WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil is currently showing an overall bullish momentum, indicating that price has been on an upward trajectory with the potential for a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st resistance level at 92.06 is identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection level. Further up, the 2nd resistance level at 95.18 is marked as a resistance level that coincides with the 100.00% Fibonacci projection level, potentially acting as a strong barrier to upward price movement.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 88.77 is identified as an overlap support while the 2nd support level at 87.49 is also marked as another overlap support, reinforcing the idea that this area may act as a strong support zone.