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Asia – Commodities Fundamental and Technical Forecast | 14 September 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

US PPI, which measures inflation in the wholesale sector, rose to 0.8% YoY in July from 0.2% from the previous month. With the forecast for August pointing to another increase, inflationary pressures also appear to be returning to the forefront for this sector. After yesterday’s hot CPI print, this should most certainly cause the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance and perhaps even increase interest rates once more at next week’s FOMC meeting. A hotter than expected PPI reading is more than likely to function as yet another bullish catalyst for the DXY and thus drive gold prices lower.

In addition, employment claims will also be released today. Over the past three weeks, claims have been coming in much lower than their forecasts and another below par reading is more than likely to add further downward pressure for this precious metal.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The XAU/USD chart currently displays a bearish overall momentum, indicating a potential downward trend in price.

There’s a possibility that price may continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level at 1901.14. This support level is considered significant as it aligns with an overlap support and coincides with both the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement and the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a strong potential support zone.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1889.19 is marked as a multi-swing low support, further reinforcing its potential role as a support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1913.49 is identified as an overlap resistance, and the 2nd resistance level at 1931.97 is also noted as an overlap resistance.


Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

In similar vein to the API stockpiles, EIA crude oil Inventories unexpectedly increased by 4M barrels versus the estimate of a 2.2M drawdown. This was the first increase in stock levels for both API and EIA in five weeks. Despite inventory levels increasing this week which signal lower crude demand in the US, prices for this commodity remain elevated with WTI oil trading above $88 per barrel. For now, the prospect of a supply shortfall led by Saudi Arabia and Russia’s voluntary production cuts have buoyed crude prices thus far.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The WTI chart currently indicates a weak bullish momentum with low confidence, suggesting a tentative upward trend in price movement. There is a possibility of a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st resistance level at 88.77 is identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 91.03 is marked as a resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level, suggesting potential resistance in this area.

To the downside, there is an intermediate support level at 87.47, which is identified as a pullback support.

The 1st support at 85.59 is identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 84.30 is marked as a pullback support, further reinforcing its potential role as a support level.