FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental Analysis | 15 November 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 pm GMT)

PPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Retail sales grew 0.7% MoM in September to mark the seventh consecutive month of growth. Despite high prices and elevated borrowing costs, consumer spending remains robust. However, October’s estimate of -0.3% points to a first decline in seven months and weaker-than-expected sales could negatively impact the greenback.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – rose 0.5% MoM in September. Although the cost of gasoline surged for that month, the gain of 0.5% was the lowest reading in three months. Softer PPI readings are likely to create downward pressure for the dollar. Whatever the outcome, it is likely to be a relatively volatile period for gold prices later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish



Key news events today

China Industrial Production (2:00 am GMT)

Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Industrial production in China remained unchanged at 4.5% YoY in September as the recent rush of policy initiatives bolstered an economic rebound – this was also the highest print since April of this year. Should October’s reading print higher than the forecast of 4.5% YoY, it could provide much needed lift to crude prices.

Crude prices surged overnight as the latest US CPI data shows inflationary pressures retreating significantly which would cause the Federal Reserve to shift away from its hawkish stance. WTI oil hit a high of $79.60 per barrel before reversing sharply to give up all the initial gains. Downward pressures remain for this commodity but crude prices could retrace higher today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish