FX Careers

Asia – Commodities Fundamental Analysis | 12 October 2023

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated for a second straight month to 3.7% YoY in August from 3.2% YoY in July, which was also above the market forecast of 3.6%. Oil prices have been on the rise over the past two months,  pushing inflation higher. The forecast for September points to a somewhat unchanged reading of 3.6% YoY. Should CPI print on the lower side, it could function as a bearish catalyst for the US dollar and provide a potential lift for gold prices.

Unemployment claims have been coming in lower than their respective forecasts over the past seven weeks, which usually act as a bullish catalyst for the greenback. However, claims have started to edge higher over the last two weeks and if this data point surprises to the upside, it would indicate that some cracks may be appearing in the labour market and could potentially add downward pressure on the dollar and thus provide a boost for this precious metal.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The API data surprised markets overnight as it registered a huge build in stockpile levels. Nearly 13M barrels of crude oil were added to inventories versus the small estimate of a 1.3M-gain. This data point served as a bearish catalyst for oil as WTI oil tumbled under the $82 per barrel mark to close the gap that took place on Monday morning. The estimate for the EIA inventories points to a small drawdown of 400k barrels. However, even a larger than expected EIA drawdown is not expected to lift crude prices later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish